Menarik juga baca laporan MKM Partners yang dikeluarkan akhir Desember 2017 barusan. Mereka bilang, jika kondisi pasar terus seperti sekarang, dalam 1 sampai 3 tahun lagi akan muncul sejumlah perusahaan yang sukses mencapai valuasi US$ 1 trillion.
Beberapa nama yang ditelisik antara lain Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Tencent and Alibaba. MKM Partners mencoba memprediksi perusahaan mana yang paling cepat mencapainya.
Dan menurut mereka, peluang terbaik dimiliki Alibaba, meski saat ini merupakan yang terkecil diantara mega-cap tersebut.
The pathway for Apple:
• AAPL is the closest to $1 trillion with a $754Bn EV/ $886Bn market cap. On in-line results for CY18 and the current 13x forward EPS, valuation could reach $925Bn by 2019. An EPS growth outlook of 9% for CY20 would achieve $1tn in market cap by 2020. EPS estimates have been volatile for AAPL, with a 14% downward revision in CY16 and a 6% upward revision in CY17.
• x-factor: strength of iPhone 8/ iPhone X product cycle and follow-on
The pathway for Alphabet:
• We think GOOGL has the most unrecognized value of the mega caps. With YouTube valued at a NFLX multiple and core Google at 20x, we think valuation could exceed $1 trillion by 2019. We unfortunately don’t see this as a likely path. Assuming status quo disclosures, we see the $1tn milestone some time in 2021 on 15% annual EPS growth and a 20x forward P/E.
• x-factor: potential for incremental disclosure
The pathway for Amazon:
• Assuming AMZN makes consensus through 2019, grows by another 25% in 2020 and maintains its 2.6x EV/ sales, the company could be valued at $875Bn by 2020. Valuation could then exceed $1 trillion by 2021 with a 15% growth outlook for that year. AMZN’s EV/ sales multiple increased by 16% in 2017, driven we think by incremental disclosures. Multiple expansion could continue, but we think it’s more likely that AMZN does not achieve the $1 trillion milestone until late 2020 or sometime in 2021.
• x-factor: multiple expansion/ contraction
The pathway for Facebook:
• With in-line results, a 30% growth outlook for CY20 and the current 25x forward P/E, we estimate a market cap of $810Bn by 2020. We think that consensus reflects a very conservative outlook and expect material upside. Assuming a 10% EPS beat vs. consensus, a 30% growth outlook for CY20 and the same 25x P/E, market cap could reach $885Bn by 2020. We think it’s most likely that FB achieves the $1 trillion milestone sometime in 2021.
• x-factor: messaging monetization could accelerate growth and fuel multiple expansion
The pathway for Tencent:
• Tencent is the fastest growing of the mega-caps and has the highest P/E at 39x. On in-line results, a 30% growth outlook for CY20 and a stable multiple, Tencent could reach $840Bn in market cap by 2020. Tencent has been materially beating consensus. With 12% EPS upside and a stable multiple, $1 trillion could be achieved by 2020, but we think maintaining 39x P/E is unlikely. With moderation to 30x, $1tn could be achieved in 2021 if the company beats consensus by 15% then grows by 35% for two more years.
• x-factors: sustainability of gaming growth and P/E
The pathway for Alibaba:
• At current consensus, a 30% growth outlook for CY20 and the current 24x P/E, market cap could reach $720Bn by 2020. Earnings results for BABA have been exceeding consensus by a wide margin and we think estimates are conservative. If BABA exceeds the current consensus by 20% in CY18, grows EPS by 45% in CY19, has an outlook for 40% in CY20 and maintains its 24x forward P/E, then market cap could exceed $1 trillion in 2020.
• x-factors: ad-load/ take-rate increases, drag from loss-making businesses, Ant Financial & other private investments
Detilnya bisa baca sendiri di laporannya. 😀